Robust Decision Making

Reopening Under Uncertainty: Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Exit Strategy

We used the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test California's COVID-19 reopening strategy. This Perspective presents lessons learned from these experiments and outlines four characteristics of the best reopening strategies.

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

We analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

Reopening California: Seeking Robust, Non-Dominated COVID-19 Exit Strategies

This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test California's COVID-19 reopening strategy considering a range of uncertainties.